Education for 15-minute crypto event contracts
Fifteen minutes. One strike. The last sixty seconds decide it.
Exact, plain explanations of how these contracts charge fees, how the two sides of the book relate, and how settlement really works. Read it before you put a dollar on a strike.
What to learn first
Four rules that decide more trades than any forecast
Each one has cost real traders money when they got it slightly wrong. Each page states the rule, shows the arithmetic, and quotes the contract terms where they matter.
The fee is quadratic
Takers pay up to 1.75 cents a contract at 50 cents. Makers pay nothing.
How the fee works
YES and NO are one book
A NO bid is a YES offer. Buying both sides always costs more than the dollar they pay out.
Why one book
Settlement is an average
The result is the simple average of the index over the final 60 seconds, not the last print.
How settlement works
No data means No
If the index fails to publish at expiry, affected strikes resolve to No, whatever the price did.
Why outages matter
Fees
Near 50 cents, the fee can eat a two-cent edge whole
The taker fee depends on the price, peaks in the middle and falls to almost nothing at the ends.
- Rounded up to $0.0001 per fill, not to the cent.
- Makers, whose resting orders get filled, pay zero.
Try it
That is 1.75¢ a contract, the edge a taker needs just to break even on the fee.
Results
No returns on this site, on purpose
A backtest can be tuned until it looks good, and a claim about returns needs legal review before it goes on a public page. If we publish research results after that review, each one will carry the context below. Until then you will not see a percentage here.
| Every published result | Shows |
|---|---|
| Trial count | how many ideas were tried |
| Source | paper or real fills |
| Fees | taken out, per fill |
| Windows | count and date range |
| Error | clustered by window |
Questions
Before you sign up
Is 15 Minute Markets part of Kalshi?
No. 15 Minute Markets is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi. We write about contracts listed on Kalshi because that is where these 15-minute markets trade.
Does this site trade for me or send signals?
No. This version is education only. It does not connect to any exchange account, place orders, or tell you what to buy.
What does a free account get me?
For now, a saved account with two-factor sign-in. Research dashboards are planned for a paid tier, and the pricing page lists what is coming. Nothing is for sale yet.
Can I lose money on these contracts?
Yes. Every contract can settle at zero, and fees apply whether you are right or wrong. Nothing on this site is investment advice.